Automation has totally eliminated just one career in the last 60 years

We are using cookies to give you the best experience on our site. By continuing to use our site, you are agreeing to our use of cookies. Commentary and analysis shaping our Global, Regional and Industry agendas Read more Read more Read more Read our reports on the broad range of global issues we’re seeking to address More reports Learn about our activities tackling the most significant global challenges through public-private collaboration Consumption Digital Economy and Society Economic Growth and Social Inclusion Education, Gender and Work Energy Environment and Natural Resource Security Financial and Monetary Systems Food Security and Agriculture Health and Healthcare Information and Entertainment International Trade and Investment Long-Term Investing, Infrastructure and Development Mobility Production More initiatives Learn more about our events which work to shape the Global, Regional and Industry agendas Open Forum Davos More events Committed to improving the state of the world Our Mission Leadership and Governance Our Members and Partners Communities History Klaus Schwab Media Careers Contact Us World Economic Forum LLC Code of Conduct Privacy and Terms of Use 日本事務所 Sustainability Global Agenda Artificial Intelligence and Robotics Employment and Skills Innovation Third party content This article is published in collaboration with Quartz. Written by Sarah Kessler, Writer, Quartz Monday 27 March 2017 Monday 27 March 2017 More on the agenda Automation often replaces human labor, but very rarely in the last sixty years has it eliminated an entire occupation. Only one of the 270 detailed occupations listed in the 1950 US Census has since been eliminated by automation, according to a working paper by Harvard economist James Bessen. The one exception: elevator operator. While the government has removed other occupations from the Census due to factors like lack of demand (boardinghouse keepers) and technological obsolescence (telegraph operators), only elevator operators owe their occupation’s demise mostly to automation, Bessen found. The pattern of the last 60 years is likely to continue. Though almost all of today’s jobs have some aspect that can be automated by current technology, very few jobs can be entirely automated, according to a recent McKinsey analysis. “This distinction is important because it implies very different economic outcomes,” Bessen wrote in a column last year. “If a job is completely automated, then automation necessarily reduces employment. But if a job is only partially automated, employment might actually increase.” This is what happened when weaving technology advanced during the Industrial Revolution, for instance. The price of cloth dropped, more people bought cloth, and factories hired more people to keep up with demand—even though each worker could, with the help of machines, be much more productive. That is the positive scenario. For some products and services, falling prices won’t create more jobs, because falling prices won’t increase demand. And then there’s always the argument that modern technology is advancing so quickly that nothing about how the economy has adapted to new technologies in the past is relevant. In any case, in the story of automation and jobs, elevator operators really got shafted. This article is published in collaboration with Quartz. The views expressed in this article are those of the author alone and not the World Economic Forum.